Analysis, not standings

Luck

A fantasy schedule is drawn at random, so you can score the second highest total in the league and still lose. These two tables take the draw out of it: they count every week against everybody who played it, and against the middle score of it, and put the result beside what actually happened.

Luck is that record subtracted from the real one: a plus means you have won more than your scoring earned, a minus means less. Expected is the wins the all-play rate would have given you over the same number of games, and Combined is the median record added to the real one.

If everyone played everyone

Every week counted against every other manager who played it
#	Manager	All-play	Actual	Luck	Expected
1	colemacpherson	231-147-0	27-27-0	-.111	33.0
Actual 27-27-0 Luck -.111 Expected 33.0
2	alexisblock	201-177-0	27-27-0	-.032	28.7
Actual 27-27-0 Luck -.032 Expected 28.7
3	ryanblock	192-186-0	30-24-0	+.048	27.4
Actual 30-24-0 Luck +.048 Expected 27.4
4	euprety	191-187-0	27-27-0	-.005	27.3
Actual 27-27-0 Luck -.005 Expected 27.3
5	nikhiltherealdeal	191-187-0	29-25-0	+.032	27.3
Actual 29-25-0 Luck +.032 Expected 27.3
6	connorely	177-201-0	28-26-0	+.050	25.3
Actual 28-26-0 Luck +.050 Expected 25.3
7	anup2318	174-204-0	26-28-0	+.021	24.9
Actual 26-28-0 Luck +.021 Expected 24.9
8	MattyGill	155-223-0	22-32-0	-.003	22.1
Actual 22-32-0 Luck -.003 Expected 22.1

Against the weekly median

Every week counted against the middle score of that week
#	Manager	Median	Actual	Luck	Combined
1	colemacpherson	34-20-0	27-27-0	-.130	61-47-0
Actual 27-27-0 Luck -.130 Combined 61-47-0
2	alexisblock	28-26-0	27-27-0	-.018	55-53-0
Actual 27-27-0 Luck -.018 Combined 55-53-0
3	ryanblock	27-27-0	30-24-0	+.056	57-51-0
Actual 30-24-0 Luck +.056 Combined 57-51-0
4	euprety	28-26-0	27-27-0	-.018	55-53-0
Actual 27-27-0 Luck -.018 Combined 55-53-0
5	nikhiltherealdeal	27-27-0	29-25-0	+.037	56-52-0
Actual 29-25-0 Luck +.037 Combined 56-52-0
6	connorely	23-31-0	28-26-0	+.093	51-57-0
Actual 28-26-0 Luck +.093 Combined 51-57-0
7	anup2318	25-29-0	26-28-0	+.018	51-57-0
Actual 26-28-0 Luck +.018 Combined 51-57-0
8	MattyGill	24-30-0	22-32-0	-.037	46-62-0
Actual 22-32-0 Luck -.037 Combined 46-62-0

This league does not score median matchups. The combined record is what the table would say if it did. It is here to be argued about, it is not a standing, and it is not what any of these seasons was decided on.

Regular season games only, every season since 2022. A playoff opponent is earned rather than drawn, so measuring the luck of that draw would measure nothing. Each week's median is taken over the teams that actually played it.