Analysis, not standings

Luck

A fantasy schedule is drawn at random, so you can score the second highest total in the league and still lose. These two tables take the draw out of it: they count every week against everybody who played it, and against the middle score of it, and put the result beside what actually happened.

Luck is that record subtracted from the real one: a plus means you have won more than your scoring earned, a minus means less. Expected is the wins the all-play rate would have given you over the same number of games, and Combined is the median record added to the real one.

If everyone played everyone

Every week counted against every other manager who played it
#	Manager	All-play	Actual	Luck	Expected
1	colemacpherson	249-157-0	31-27-0	-.079	35.6
Actual 31-27-0 Luck -.079 Expected 35.6
2	nikhiltherealdeal	215-191-0	32-26-0	+.022	30.7
Actual 32-26-0 Luck +.022 Expected 30.7
3	alexisblock	214-192-0	29-29-0	-.027	30.6
Actual 29-29-0 Luck -.027 Expected 30.6
4	ryanblock	209-197-0	32-26-0	+.037	29.9
Actual 32-26-0 Luck +.037 Expected 29.9
5	anup2318	192-214-0	28-30-0	+.010	27.4
Actual 28-30-0 Luck +.010 Expected 27.4
6	euprety	191-215-0	27-31-0	-.005	27.3
Actual 27-31-0 Luck -.005 Expected 27.3
7	connorely	185-221-0	30-28-0	+.061	26.4
Actual 30-28-0 Luck +.061 Expected 26.4
8	MattyGill	169-237-0	23-35-0	-.020	24.1
Actual 23-35-0 Luck -.020 Expected 24.1

Against the weekly median

Every week counted against the middle score of that week
#	Manager	Median	Actual	Luck	Combined
1	colemacpherson	37-21-0	31-27-0	-.103	68-48-0
Actual 31-27-0 Luck -.103 Combined 68-48-0
2	nikhiltherealdeal	31-27-0	32-26-0	+.017	63-53-0
Actual 32-26-0 Luck +.017 Combined 63-53-0
3	alexisblock	29-29-0	29-29-0	.000	58-58-0
Actual 29-29-0 Luck .000 Combined 58-58-0
4	ryanblock	29-29-0	32-26-0	+.052	61-55-0
Actual 32-26-0 Luck +.052 Combined 61-55-0
5	anup2318	27-31-0	28-30-0	+.017	55-61-0
Actual 28-30-0 Luck +.017 Combined 55-61-0
6	euprety	28-30-0	27-31-0	-.017	55-61-0
Actual 27-31-0 Luck -.017 Combined 55-61-0
7	connorely	24-34-0	30-28-0	+.103	54-62-0
Actual 30-28-0 Luck +.103 Combined 54-62-0
8	MattyGill	27-31-0	23-35-0	-.069	50-66-0
Actual 23-35-0 Luck -.069 Combined 50-66-0

Regular season games only, every season since 2022. A playoff opponent is earned rather than drawn, so measuring the luck of that draw would measure nothing. Each week's median is taken over the teams that actually played it.